End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – July 16, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – July 16, 2025

Tone: Bullish China Spot Diverges from Futures; Tier 1 Interest Awakens, but FOB Stalls Below 175

🔹 ANZE Surges to RMB 1,300–1,320 – China Spot Equivalent Now ~169 FOB Australia

• Chinese spot physical coal prices surged further, with ANZE hitting RMB 1,300–1,320, equivalent to ~$169 FOB Australia.

• This price level has reignited Tier 1 seaborne interest from Chinese buyers, though no firm bids have emerged yet.

• The gap between Chinese spot and seaborne Tier 1 has narrowed significantly, creating potential arbitrage windows.

  
  

🔹 Futures Market Diverges – DCE Below RMB 900, Spot Disconnected

• Despite bullish physicals, DCE September futures weakened below RMB 900, showing a clear divergence from spot market strength.

• The disconnect highlights paper short positioning and possible over-hedging, as spot demand stays firm.

• Similarly, SGX August paper trades at 177, while index is assessed around 172.5, reflecting short-covering and speculative mismatches.

  
  

🔹 Oaky North Offer at 174 FOB – Market Skeptical

• Oaky North reappeared with a 174 FOB fixed price offer, but authenticity is doubted.

• Given the recent fixed-price trade at 167 FOB, the offer remains in line, but traders are cautious to engage unless confirmed.

• The market appears to be testing miner resolve at the 175–177 support band, while buyers hesitate below that.