End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – July 15, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – July 15, 2025

Market Floor Emerges – Tier 1 trades signal baseline, China sustains upward pull, sentiment stabilizing

🔹 Tier 1 Trade Confirms Market Floor – Oaky North at $167 FOB / $183 CFR

The remaining July Oaky North cargo traded at $167 FOB (or $183 CFR to India), marking a firm support level in the market.

Oaky North, considered Tier 1 PHCC, typically values at a 95–98% discount to PLV benchmarks. This trade implies PLV benchmark valuation at $170–175 FOB.

This sets a structural floor for PLV assessments, as weaker Tier 1 is clearing, and Goonyella or better PMV cargoes would need to price above that.

🔹 Illawarra Resale Adds to Tier 1 Signals – 97% of Aug Index

An Illawarra cargo from RTM to Vedanta reportedly traded at 97% of August index, though freight calculation disagreements persist.

Still, the trade adds to confirmation that Tier 1 cargoes are drawing bids, even if pricing formulas differ.

It suggests rising confidence in Tier 1 FOB levels as China and India remain active.

🔹 China’s Market Drives Sentiment – ANZE Hits 1,260, DCE Nears 1,000

Chinese spot physical prices remain firm, with ANZE surging to RMB 1,260, implying $155–170 FOB Australia equivalents.

DCE January futures moved closer to RMB 1,000, fueled by expectations of economic stimulus and speculative short-covering.

This bullish pull from China is underpinning both physical and paper sentiment in FOB markets.

Firm bids are still absent but valuation is catching up.

🔹 FOB Offers Anchor at $175 – Market Watches Miner Response

The Oaky North offer returned at $175 FOB, though its authenticity remains uncertain.

Market consensus is that if miners hold above this floor, sentiment may consolidate.

With PLV–PMV spread changing and China leading the upside, pressure is now on PRAs and traders to reassess their valuation frameworks.