End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – August 12, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – August 12, 2025

Tone is decisively bullish, with fundamentals slowly catching up to sentiment.

DCE Hits Fresh Highs, Sentiment Turns Euphoric – The DCE Sep contract locked limit up at RMB 1,162.5, while Jan breached its previous high, touching RMB 1,325. A perfect storm of abundant bullish headlines and the absence of bearish triggers has fueled a euphoric tone in paper markets.

Physical Market Lags, but Tier Two Demand Stays Firm – Despite the paper rally, end users remain composed, refusing to chase high offers. Recent rains in Australia have delayed loadings, sparking strong tier two demand that is likely to spill over into tier one as time works in the bulls’ favor.

BHP’s COI in Focus, Indexes Seen as Detached – BHP’s cross-month GYC COI this week is expected to land in the $195–$200 FOB range. Current PRA index values remain heavily weighted toward end-user perspectives, sitting well below levels at which miners or traders are willing to transact for both tier one and tier two cargoes.