End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – August 1, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – August 1, 2025

Tone: China physical market peaking as FOB stalls at highs

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Chinese Physical Market Corrects Sharply

As anticipated, Chinese PHCC prices are correcting, with several brands down ~RMB 100/mt today.

Anze PHCC is now expected to fall from RMB 1,500 back toward RMB 1,400, signaling a clear peak in domestic sentiment.

DCE Sep contract fell further to close near RMB 980, down nearly RMB 300 from recent highs.

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FOB Market Slow to React Despite Clear Top in China

FOB levels remain elevated due to:

Thin liquidity, making downward price discovery slow.

Sep GYC supply perceived as tighter, providing a temporary buffer.

However, the upward momentum from Chinese support has faded, and buyers are growing cautious.

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Emerging Supply Pressure from Alternative Brands

Brolga offers are beginning to appear, suggesting the next wave of miner supply may not be far off.

Market is watching whether any resales may emerge from major buyers.

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Arcelor Mexico BF Outage Raises Questions

Blast furnace outage in Mexico (Arcelor) is drawing market attention, with rumors of iron ore force majeure.

Traders are speculating on the possibility of reselling of PHCC cargoes, which could add to supply-side pressure.