End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – April 29, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – April 29, 2025

Slightly bullish, driven by supply disruption fears and limited new offers, though buyers remain cautious and await clearer signals from Australian miners.

• Oaky Creek Incident Lends Support: Market chatter around Glencore’s Oaky Creek situation provided underpinning to sentiment. While it remains unclear if a Force Majeure was officially declared, an incident notice is believed to have been issued. No confirmation of production resumption nontheless implies lost tonnage.

  • Oaky Creek has a capacity of around 4 million metric tons per annum.

  • A 4-week stoppage would result in approximately 333,000 tons of lost production, equivalent to about 4–5 Panamax vessels — a meaningful tightening for the market.

• Resale Rumors Fading: Earlier rumors of Chinese and Japanese resale cargoes have evaporated, as attention shifted to Oaky Creek’s developing situation, reducing immediate oversupply concerns.

• Supply Gap at Goonyella: The market is observing a noticeable absence of Goonyella (GYC) cargoes, and there is debate over whether Canadian supply can fully replace GYC volumes.

• BHP Stays Firm: BHP showed no intention to sell this week, further reinforcing the tight supply environment.

• Market Awaits Direction, Bias Slightly Up: Although market direction remains uncertain, upside risks slightly outweigh downside risks, supported by supply tightness and cautious miner behavior.