End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – 7 August 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – 7 August 2025

Tone: The tone is cautiously bullish, with upward momentum still intact but growing resistance from end users hinting at potential price fatigue.

China Coke Market: 6th Round in Sight

• 6th round of coke price increase is under active discussion.

• Proposal may be formally submitted tomorrow or soon.

• Signals strong confidence from coke producers, but:

  • End-user resistance in China is intensifying, citing rising costs.

  • Seaborne buyers are also reluctant to follow paper market highs.

    
    

Tier Two Attracts Demand

• Physical demand is increasing for tier two coals.

• Buyers are finding more value in tier two:

  • Tier one FOB offers sit above buyer comfort levels.

  • Tier one vs. tier two spread may narrow, driven by affordability logic.

    
    

Market Dynamics

• Seaborne buyers remain quiet, with many refusing to engage above $190 FOB.

• TSI paper still elevated, but liquidity is slowing as conviction weakens.

• Chinese spot strength holds, but paper-physical divergence may limit further upside.

  
  

Outlook

• A pricing ceiling may be forming, unless:

  • India re-engages with meaningful volume.

  • China’s next macro push unlocks fresh end-user buying.