End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – 6 August 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – 6 August 2025

TSI rallies above $200 for Oct, but physical buyers stand still – A $10 surge in paper since the last physical GYC trade (188.82 FOB) has been met with restraint on the physical front. Despite continued bullish sentiment from China, firm bids remain capped near $185 CFR, while Indian buyers remain quiet. With both sides unwilling to move first, the seaborne market enters a tactical stalemate.

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TSI Paper Soars Further

TSI October traded above $200, reflecting the bullish continuation in sentiment.

TSI September valued near $198, up nearly $10 from when the last physical GYC cargo was transacted at $188.82 FOB on July 31.

Paper curve steepens further, but physical market yet to catch up.

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China Sentiment Firm, But Bid Ceiling Remains

Chinese domestic sentiment remains supported by:

Stable coke prices post 5th round of uptick

Mine control rumors

However, firm CFR bids from China remain capped near $185, showing no evidence of chasing the paper rally.

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India Still Absent

Indian buyers have not returned with any strong bids.

The Indian market remains cautious, despite firmer FOB values.

Without India chasing high, FOB upside remains reliant on speculative flows.

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Market Takeaways

Paper traders are positioning bullishly, but physical fundamentals lag.

Both sellers and buyers in the FOB market are in wait-and-see mode.

Spread between TSI paper and physical grows increasingly wide, setting up potential volatility when either side blinks.