End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – 5 August 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – 5 August 2025

Rumors reignite bullish fire – Policy speculation around mine production control once again lifted Chinese sentiment, sending DCE Jan soaring. While seaborne buyers remain hesitant to chase prices above $190 FOB, the balance of power appears to shift toward sellers as supply tightens and Chinese downside decouples from FOB fundamentals.

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DCE Jan Soars on Policy Hopes

DCE Jan 2026 futures surged to RMB 1,200, a strong gain driven by renewed policy rumors on mine output control.

The spread between Jan and Sep contracts widened to ~160 RMB, highlighting speculative optimism.

Bullish tone in paper yet to be fully confirmed in physical trade.

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TSI Sep Pushes Higher

TSI Sep climbed from $191 to $195, in line with the strong DCE push.

Buyers have not aggressively chased the rally, but the paper curve is steepening again.

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FOB Fundamentals Tighten Gently

Apparent tightness in Tier 1 supply (e.g. GYC, Saraji) is increasing buyer anxiety, though no firm bids above $190 FOB yet.

Tier 2 cargoes are noticeably scarce, helping maintain a bullish undertone.

Traders note that even if China weakens, FOB may not follow – FOB is regaining independence, especially with Sep supply structure appearing tighter than initially expected.

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Market Takeaways

Edge lies with sellers now, even if buyers aren’t chasing yet.

FOB no longer mirrors China’s corrections – instead, Chinese upside may lend support, while downside may be ignored.

Key to watch: whether end-users capitulate and lift cargoes >$190 FOB, or if hesitation triggers a pause.