End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – 4 August 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – 4 August 2025

Stabilising, but direction unclear – The market paused after extreme volatility, as both DCE and FOB participants await clearer signals from China’s production policies and end-user steel fundamentals. No fresh rally is expected short term, but downside also capped by adjusted LTC levels and tighter September FOB supply.

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DCE Sideways, Awaiting Direction

DCE September futures traded in a narrow ±50 RMB range, closing near RMB 1000.

Traders held back as the market waits for clarity on mine and steel production policy ahead of China’s WW2 Victory 80th anniversary.

Sentiment remains cautious but not bearish.

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China Physical Steady After Coke Price Uptick

The 5th round of coke price hikes (50–55 RMB/t) concluded after a delay.

Physical spot prices remain firm but show signs of plateauing.

LTC prices adjusted upward as expected, now translating to ~175–180 FOB equivalent.

No additional upside momentum seen, but downside looks protected for now.

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FOB Market Stabilises Near Recent Highs

After last week’s BHP GYC sale at $188.82 FOB, sentiment stabilised.

No large follow-through rally as Indian steel prices remain near 4.5-year lows, capping fresh PMV/PLV demand.

Liquidity remains thin, and no new trades were reported today.

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Key Takeaways

Market is in a holding pattern, with both bulls and bears seeking justification.

Upside risks depend on Chinese policy execution or Indian demand revival.

Downside risks are mitigated by LTC support, but resell pressure remains a threat if prices stretch too far above $185 FOB.