End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – 31 July 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – 31 July 2025

Market finds equilibrium with BHP GYC trade as downside risks emerge from DCE and weak steel sentiment

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💼 BHP GYC Sold at $188.82 FOB – Within Market Expectations

BHP successfully sold GYC at $188.82 FOB, aligning with anticipated range of $185–190.

Attention now turns to how Platts will assess the spread between GYC and Saraji – likely to widen, as:

GYC appears tighter in availability than expected.

PLV buying power, especially from China, is weakening.

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🇨🇳 China: LTC Prices to Rise, But Spot Demand Weakens

Chinese LTC (Long-Term Contract) price is anticipated to adjust upward to $175–180 FOB-equivalent.

However, spot market may be capped:

If Platts Index climbs above $185 FOB, resell cargoes from China could emerge, adding downside pressure.

Chinese spot physical is likely at or near its peak, especially with the fifth coke price hike now slowing.

First round of coke price cuts projected mid-August, signaling near-term topping behavior.

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📉 DCE Sep Limit Down Below RMB 1,050

DCE paper crashed limit down, mirroring sharp drops in Chinese steel prices following disappointing demand data.

Reinforces the risk that DCE paper may decouple from physical fundamentals.

Short-term caution prevails, as volatility from DCE adds noise and impairs physical trade signals.

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🌐 Market Outlook: Sideways Bias with Key Watch Points

Upside potential is limited unless new Indian demand surfaces – none apparent for now.

Downside risk stems from:

Resale of Sep-laycan Oaky North cargoes from term buyers.

Continued weakness in Chinese steel and DCE paper.