End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – 30 July 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – 30 July 2025

Coking coal market drifts in uncertainty as DCE volatility keeps FOB market reactive and cautious

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📉 FOB Market Paralyzed by DCE Volatility

FOB sentiment remains highly dependent on DCE swings, which today showed signs of fragility.

DCE corrected ~70 RMB, from the 1150s to the 1080s, after policy meeting outcomes failed to meet bullish expectations.

The ongoing disconnect between fundamentals and DCE paper has made physical market participants hesitant to move.

⚠️ Bubble Signs Emerge on DCE

Growing consensus across the market that the DCE rally was speculative, not fundamental.

Many see a potential bubble burst risk, and the correction today has shaken bullish momentum.

Traders fear sharp reversal and are refraining from aggressive bids or offers.

⚙️ BHP Potential COI Activity Points to 185–190 FOB Range

Market expectations are hovering around 185–190 FOB based on recent TSI prints.

However, no fixed-price trade has yet been concluded, and the final price could reflect the next DCE swing rather than physical fundamentals.

💡 Market Mood: “Anyone’s Guess”

The combination of a volatile paper market, uncertain Chinese demand behavior, and overhang of resell cargoes has made sentiment highly unstable.

TSI paper continues to trade above physical, but participants are increasingly skeptical of sustainability.

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🔎 Key Takeaways

Caution dominates FOB trading as the market waits for clarity from both China and BHP’s COI process.

Sentiment is reactionary, not directional – a sign of fragile confidence.

Until DCE stabilizes and firm Chinese demand emerges, expect limited FOB trading, increased reliance on index-linked terms, and hesitation from buyers and sellers alike.