End-of-Day Market Summary – 29 July 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – 29 July 2025

Market cools off as supply concerns fade, demand cautious, and liquidity dries up

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🚢 BHP Shows End-Sep GYC Cargo

A late laycan GYC parcel emerged and the market has various interpretations of it.

One of them signals ongoing oversupply, with alternatives like:

Two August GYC cargoes still in the market (one dropped to 102% of PLV index, down from 104%),

Illawarra resell cargoes (from either miner or traders),

Chinese PMV heading to India.

This glut undermines any bullish FOB Outlook beyond 185 FOB.

🇨🇳 China Buyers Stay Defensive

Chinese end users are firm at ~$175 CFR, reluctant to pay higher despite domestic prices implying ~$180 FOB Australia equivalence.

However, no one is pulling the trigger, reflecting weak conviction even at adjusted valuations.

Sentiment is now mixed as DCE recovered from the previous crash amid increasing steel prices in China.

💧 Liquidity Thin, Market Mixed

No strong buy-side or sell-side leadership.

Miners holding back, traders cautious, and PRAs struggling to assess fair value.