Circulated analysis of India Met Coke QR. Click to read

Regarding India's Coke Import Quota:

1. Total Quota: The total quota for the first half of 2025 (1.427 million tons) is significantly lower than India's estimated 2024 import volume (close to 5 million tons for the entire year).

2. Quota Allocation by Key Countries:

Poland, with the largest quota (506,000 tons for six months), has relatively ample space.

In contrast, Indonesia (quota of 66,000 tons for six months) and China (quota of 79,000 tons for six months) face quotas far below their 2024 import levels (Indonesia and China imported 1.4 million tons and 624,000 tons, respectively, in the first 10 months of 2024).

3. Quota for Secondary Countries:

Colombia's quota (250,000 tons for six months) is relatively lenient, as is Japan's (210,000 tons for six months).

On the other hand, Switzerland and Russia have tighter quotas.

Potential Impacts:

1. Increased Procurement of Seaborne Coking Coal:

Indian buyers will likely increase purchases of seaborne coking coal to make up for the domestic coke shortage (domestic coke prices may also rise).

2. Impact on Suppliers:

The most affected supplier may be Indonesia (unable to fully absorb the quota reduction domestically). With the quota significantly reduced, Indonesian coking plants may adopt production cuts to reduce supply pressure. Excess supply could flow back to China or to other unrestricted markets (Southeast Asia, Brazil, Europe, etc.) to compete for market share.

3. Impact on Chinese Coke:

Without access to the Indian market, Chinese coke will similarly be redirected to traditional markets (Japan, Brazil, Europe, etc.) to compete for market share.

4. Price Competition in European Markets:

As traders seek alternative export routes, there is a possibility that low-priced coke from China and Indonesia could flow into Poland’s traditional export markets in Europe (which has the largest quota). This may crowd out some Polish export volumes (Poland exported a total of 4.55 million tons from January to September 2024), redirecting them to higher-priced Indian markets.