Analysis: Australia already lost 500kt of PMV, Indian demand gap exposed - can Canada fill the gap?
- Met Coal Junkie
- May 1, 2025
- 2 min read
India Faces PHCC Gap as Over 500kt Lost from Australian Underground Supply
Major disruptions at Australia’s top underground coking coal mines — Moranbah North (Anglo American), Appin (GM3), and Oaky Creek (Glencore) — have already removed ~513,000 tonnes of PHCC from the seaborne market as of May 1, 2025. The actual impact could rise to ~900,000 tonnes through Q2 if mine suspensions persist, equating to 12 Panamax cargoes of high-grade coal.
Estimated Lost Production (as of May 1):
Appin (GM3): ~165,000 tonnes (resumed)
Moranbah North: ~270,000 tonnes (still shut)
Oaky Creek: ~78,000 tonnes (still shut)
Total Lost So Far: ~513,000 tonnes (~6.8 Panamax vessels)
Forward Risk:
If Moranbah remains shut 1 more month: +246,000 t
If Oaky Creek recovers in 3–4 weeks: +233,000 to 311,000 t
Potential Total Q2 Loss: ~900,000 tonnes (~12 vessels)
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India’s PHCC Supply Gap — A Symptom of a Bigger Problem
India’s Monthly PHCC Requirement: ~4 Panamax vessels = ~300,000 tonnes
BHP’s Expected PMV Supply: ~2 Panamax vessels = ~150,000 tonnes
Immediate Shortfall in May: ~150,000 tonnes (~2 Panamax vessels)
However, this 2 Panamax gap does not even account for the larger structural loss in the global supply pool caused by Australian mine closures. If these mines remain offline, buyers globally — not just in India — will be competing for fewer tons.
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Blending Constraints and Substitution Challenges
Most Indian mills are calibrated to Australian PMV, especially from BHP and Anglo.
Canadian PHCC, while technically viable, is not a preferred substitute due to differences in CSR, VM, and coke strength requirements.
Amid rising HRC prices and strong steel margins, mills are unlikely to compromise on coking coal quality just to fill gaps.
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Conclusion
India faces a visible 2 Panamax vessel PHCC deficit in May, but the true market imbalance is far greater, with over 500,000 tonnes already lost from Australian supply and more at risk. With limited alternatives and strict coal quality preferences, the PHCC market is likely to remain tight through Q2 — especially for Australian PMV grades.