Japan Forecasts Sharp Drop in Q2 Steel Output, Weakening Met Coal Demand

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on April 10, 2025, that crude steel production for the April–June quarter is expected to fall by 4.9% year-on-year to 20.2 million tonnes — the lowest quarterly volume in five years. The decline is driven by weaker demand in construction and manufacturing, compounded by high input costs and labor constraints. With this downturn, demand for metallurgical coal, particularly from Australia and the U.S., is likely to dip as steelmakers cut output. The forecast excludes potential impacts from upcoming U.S. tariffs, which could worsen the outlook.