End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – May 9, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – May 9, 2025

The market closed the week on a quiet and cautious note, with physical Chinese weakness offset by stable seaborne indicators. All eyes remain on BHP’s delayed COI for June GYC, expected to set the next directional tone.

• FOB Market Extremely Quiet: The FOB seaborne market remained muted, with Platts operating a half-day, leading to minimal spot activity and no new offers from major miners.

• TSI Paper Sees Light Action: TSI paper traded sporadically around $187.5, showing signs of mild resilience but lacking strong conviction amid broader market lull.

• China Physical Prices Hit Previous Lows: Anze coals in China fell to Yuan 1,270, matching previous lows, as domestic supply builds up and mills show little urgency to restock.

Week-on-Week Met Coal Market Sentiment Tracker

Category	Previous Week (Apr 26–May 2)	This Week (May 3–9)	Change
Seaborne FOB Activity	Cautiously firm, limited offers	Very quiet, especially late week due to Platts half-day	↓ Lower liquidity
Indian CFR Trades	Active, multiple deals at $205–215 CFR	No fresh trades reported, buyers waiting on BHP COI	↓ Paused buying
BHP Spot Behavior	Holding back PMV, selling off-spec to avoid price discovery	No COI issued yet; market anxiously awaits June GYC clarity	– Unchanged but watched
TSI Paper	Steady at $185.5–186	Sporadic trades near $187.5 amid low volume	↑ Slight rebound
DCE Futures	Fell to record lows	Continued decline, breaking new lows daily	↓ Weak sentiment persists
China Physical (Anze)	Softened to ~Yuan 1,280	Dropped to previous low of Yuan 1,270	↓ Bearish domestic trend
Overall Sentiment	Balanced to slightly bullish	Muted, cautious — market waiting for BHP’s next move	↓ Neutralizing

Summary Insights:

• Momentum Slows: The bullish tone from strong Indian CFR trades and Australian supply tightness has cooled, with buyers now waiting for clarity on BHP’s June offerings.

• China Weakness Pressures Tone: Domestic oversupply in China and continued DCE weakness have reintroduced bearish undertones, particularly in the physical East Asian market.

• Price Holding, But Volume Light: FOB and TSI levels remain elevated, but trading volumes are thin, and the lack of spot offers or COI from BHP is reinforcing a holding pattern.