End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – June 3, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – June 3, 2025

Reluctant alignment — the market is adjusting to an oversupply narrative, with sentiment diverging between branded PMV strength and PLV index weakness. Resistance from long positions is being worn down by consistent offer pressure.

• Oaky North Offer Drops Further: The resale offer for Oaky North fell another $2 to $186 FOB, in line with yesterday’s bearish trajectory. Market participants expect further downside in the coming days.

• Pushback From Long Market Participants: Numerous unverified claims surfaced questioning the offer’s validity—including whether the mine has resumed production or if the cargo was already sold. These arguments largely stem from long-biased participants unwilling to accept a shift in fundamentals.

• PLV-PMV Divergence Intensifies: The current market longs PMV-type cargoes such as Goonyella, supported by recent $205-208 CFR India trades, yet the Platts index (PLV-based) will likely follow the Oaky North price trend. This will create a widening divergence between PMV and PLV benchmarks.

• China Prices Continue Sliding: Chinese domestic coking coal remains under pressure, with expectations of further price drops. Q3 long-term contract (LTC) negotiations may adjust downward accordingly.

• Mine Accident Headlines Fail to Lift Market: Despite scattered news of mine incidents in China, they have failed to provide any durable price support amid excess supply and fragile demand.

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