BHP Steelmaking Coal: Upper-End FY25 Guidance Unlikely Amid Weather Constraints

According to BHP's Q3 FY25 Operational Report released 17 April, BHP’s steelmaking coal output reached 12.9 Mt for the first nine months of FY25, down 26% year-on-year due to severe wet weather and geotechnical challenges at Broadmeadow. With FY25 guidance set at 16.5–19.0 Mt, scenario analysis shows Q4 production must hit 3.6 Mt to meet the low end, 4.85 Mt for the midpoint, and 6.1 Mt for the upper end. Given Q3 output was 3.9 Mt, only the lower and midpoint scenarios are feasible. BHP has acknowledged this, withdrawing upper-end guidance and raising unit cost expectations to US$128–133/t, reflecting operational headwinds.