Analysis: Does Junkie Index show predictive potential for PLV FOB?

Executive Summary:

The Junkie Index continues to show promise as a forward-looking indicator, with sentiment shifts often preceding movements in the PLV FOB index by several days. Recent trends since index debut suggest that bearish or bullish sentiment captured during the survey period has correlated with near-term price direction. To further enhance its accuracy and market value, we encourage broader participation across stakeholder groups—every voice sharpens the signal and strengthens the index's predictive power.

Introduction:

The analysis suggests that the Junkie Index is showing moderate positive correlation (r ≈ 0.71) with the next 3-day average PLV price, though the p-value ≈ 0.075 indicates this relationship is not statistically significant at the 5% level—but is suggestive.

Key Takeaways:

• Higher Junkie Index values (Weeks 20–21) coincided with higher PLV prices in the following 3 days.

• Lower Junkie Index values (Weeks 24–26) preceded lower PLV prices, in line with bearish expectations.

• Week 23 is an exception, where despite a relatively high index, PLV began falling—possibly due to intentional offer-down behaviour by sellers.

  
  

Conclusion:

The Junkie Index has predictive potential, especially when sentiment is strongly positive or negative. However, due to the limited sample size (only 7 data points), the correlation is not statistically significant yet. With more data, the correlation’s significance will become clearer — and if this trend holds, the Junkie Index could evolve into a viable short-term leading indicator for PLV movements.

To strengthen the Junkie Index as a forward-looking tool, we encourage wider participation across the market — your input helps sharpen the signal and improve price foresight.